Market Intelligence Cell (MIC)
Cherry Market Stability Technical Report (Draft)
Market Intelligence Cell (MIC) • Draft analytical pack for internal review & web publication.
This technical note presents a multidimensional stability assessment of apple prices across market–variety–grade segments.
The MIC Stability Index (0–100) integrates six risk dimensions—price variability (CV), short-term volatility (4-week), medium-term volatility (8-week), downside risk (maximum drawdown), shock frequency, and directional consistency—to identify structurally stable and high-risk segments.
Aglar | Kullu Delicious | A (~74) and Aglar | Delicious | A (~74) emerge as the most stable segments. In contrast, Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade (~24) is structurally the most volatile, combining the highest CV (~0.42), largest drawdown (~1.65), and elevated short-term volatility.
Key takeaway: Instability is dimension-specific. Some segments are shock-driven, others drawdown-driven, while Narwal is structurally weak across multiple dimensions—requiring segment-level advisory rather than blanket market classification.
The ranking confirms Aglar A grades and Azadpur | Delicious | A as the top stability cluster (~70–74). These segments combine low variability, contained drawdown, and controlled short-term volatility while sustaining strong mean prices (~₹47–₹58/kg).
Moderately Stable segments (40–60 range) include Nowpora B grades and Azadpur B grades, where instability is driven by either shock frequency or drawdown exposure.
Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade remains the only Highly Volatile segment (~24).
Insight: Stability varies materially across grades within the same market—grade-level monitoring is essential.
The heatmap reveals that Aglar A grades show strong performance across CV, volatility, and drawdown dimensions—explaining their high composite scores.
Moderate segments show weakness concentrated in shock frequency or drawdown rather than uniform instability.
Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade displays severe weakness in variability and drawdown scores but strong directional consistency—indicating persistent trend-driven price movement despite structural vulnerability.
Interpretation: Most unstable segments fail due to 1–2 dominant structural weaknesses rather than uniform instability across all metrics.
The quadrant map separates segments by mean price and short-term volatility.
Premium + Low Volatility: Aglar A grades and Azadpur | Delicious | A combine strong price realization with contained volatility.
High Price + High Volatility: Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade shows attractive price levels (~₹46/kg) but elevated short-term volatility (~0.13).
Insight: High price does not automatically imply high risk—several premium segments remain structurally stable.
This map isolates structural exposure using CV and maximum drawdown.
Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade stands alone as the most structurally exposed segment (highest CV and highest drawdown).
Aglar | Kullu Delicious | A and Aglar | Delicious | A show the lowest structural risk (low CV, low drawdown).
Interpretation: Structural instability is highly concentrated rather than evenly distributed across markets.
The stacked decomposition highlights dominant instability contributors.
Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade shows the largest combined risk stack—driven by variability, volatility, and drawdown exposure.
Moderate segments are either shock-driven (Azadpur B grades) or drawdown-driven (Aglar B grades).
Operational Insight: Variability-driven instability supports timing advisories; drawdown-driven instability supports hedging and cautious procurement strategies.
The radar comparison illustrates multidimensional contrast.
Stable segments display wide, balanced polygons across variability, volatility, and drawdown dimensions.
Narwal | Delicious | NoGrade shows sharp contraction across structural axes with unusually high directional consistency—indicating persistent but unstable price trends.
Conclusion: Stability superiority arises from balanced strength across multiple dimensions—not dominance in a single metric.
Scores are computed from weekly apple market records and will update as additional seasonal data is incorporated.
Stability should be interpreted alongside arrivals, quality variation, and supply-side disruptions.
Transparency: The Stability Index is a diagnostic intelligence tool for advisory and risk profiling—not a price prediction model.