What is the Early Warning System (EWS)?
The Market Intelligence Cell (MIC) Early Warning System (EWS) is a data-driven monitoring framework
designed to detect early signs of price instability across APMC markets.
It uses historical price behavior to identify abnormal volatility, sharp shocks,
and sustained drawdowns before they escalate into market disruptions.
How does it work?
The system continuously evaluates:
Shock: Abnormal week-to-week price movement.
Volatility Breakout: Unusually high 4-week variability.
Drawdown: Sustained decline from a recent peak.
How to Read the Plots
• Blue line shows smoothed price trend
• Red dashed line shows short-term volatility (%)
• Green dashed line shows drawdown (%)
• Purple markers indicate alert weeks
• Dotted horizontal lines represent historical risk thresholds (p90)
• Red dashed line shows short-term volatility (%)
• Green dashed line shows drawdown (%)
• Purple markers indicate alert weeks
• Dotted horizontal lines represent historical risk thresholds (p90)
⚠️ This is a monitoring tool and does not represent price forecasting.
View Cherry EWS (Demo 2026)